This article shows that a slight variation of the argument in Milne 1996 yields the log‐likelihood ratio l rather than the log‐ratio measure r as “the one true measure of confirmation. ” *Received December 2006; revised December 2007. †To contact the author, please write to: Formal Epistemology Research Group, Zukunftskolleg and Department of Philosophy, University of Konstanz, P.O. Box X906, 78457 Konstanz, Germany; e‐mail: franz.huber@uni‐konstanz.de.

The Spohnian paradigm of ranking functions is in many respects like an order-of-magnitude reverse of subjective probability theory. Unlike probabilities, however, ranking functions are only indirectly—via a pointwise ranking function on the underlying set of possibilities W —defined on a field of propositions A over W. This research note shows under which conditions ranking functions on a field of propositions A over W and rankings on a language L are induced by pointwise ranking functions on W and the set of (...) models for L, ModL, respectively. (shrink)

PRINCÍPIOS DA DIGESTÃO DOS ALIMENTOS NOS BEZERROS -/- -/- E. I. C. da Silva -/- Departamento de Agropecuária – IFPE Campus Belo Jardim -/- Departamento de Zootecnia – UFRPE sede -/- -/- PRINCÍPIOS DA DIGESTÃO DOS ALIMENTOS NOS BEZERROS -/- -/- INTRODUÇÃO -/- Se todos os bezerros pudessem ser criados por suas mães, haveria pouca necessidade de inúmeros livros, artigos e trabalhos, como esse, sobre a criação e o manejo básico desses animais. A maioria das vacas desempenha um ótimo papel (...) na criação dos seus descendentes, desde que sejam tomados os devidos cuidados com relação a alimentação, saúde e a outros aspectos relativos à criação desses neonatos. A essência da pecuária bovina relativa à criação de bezerros é manter esses animais vivos e aptos o suficiente para desempenhar atividades produtivas de grande importância na propriedade. Para tanto, os criadores necessitam entender o desenvolvimento do trato digestivo do bezerro e os conceitos básicos da digestão dos alimentos por ele, e é isso que pretendo aclarar de forma clara e concisa com esse trabalho. -/- -/- 1.1 O TRATO DIGESTIVO DO BEZERRO -/- Um animal adulto necessita de quatro estômagos funcionais para dar-lhe a capacidade de utilizar a ampla gama de alimentos disponíveis. -/- O retículo e o rúmen abrigam milhões de micróbios que fermentam e digerem o material vegetal, em especial às presentes nas forragens. O omaso permite a absorção de água do conteúdo do intestino. O abomaso, ou quarto estômago, é o verdadeiro estômago, comparável ao dos humanos, e permite a digestão ácida dos alimentos. -/- O bezerro muito jovem não desenvolve a capacidade de digerir o pasto, sendo assim o abomaso é o único estômago funcional ao nascer. Tanto os animais recém-nascidos como os adultos têm um intestino delgado funcional que permite a digestão alcalina dos alimentos. -/- A figura 1 ilustra a anatomia dos estômagos e intestino delgado de um bezerro recém-nascido. Esse diagrama esquemático mostra as dimensões relativas dos quatro estômagos, o sulco esofágico, que vai do esôfago até o abomaso, e o esfíncter pilórico ou válvula no fundo do abomaso, que controla a velocidade de movimento do conteúdo do intestino no duodeno. -/- O omaso e o abomaso representam cerca de 70% da capacidade total do estômago no bezerro recém-nascido. Por outro lado, nas vacas adultas, eles compõem apenas 30% da capacidade total do estômago (figura 2). -/- A digestão dos alimentos é auxiliada pela secreção de certos produtos químicos denominados enzimas, que estão presentes nas várias partes do intestino. Por exemplo, os bezerros produzem a enzima renina na parede do abomasal para auxiliar na digestão das proteínas do leite, enquanto a lactase é produzida na parede do duodeno para a digestão do açúcar do leite (lactose). Estas enzimas operam mais eficazmente em diferentes níveis de acidez no conteúdo do intestino, ácido no abomaso e alcalino no duodeno. Para conseguir isso, o bezerro segrega eletrólitos, ou sais minerais, com as enzimas, para mudar o conteúdo do intestino de um tipo para outro. -/- Os produtos finais da digestão dos diferentes componentes dos alimentos são absorvidos através da parede do intestino, mediante as vilosidades intestinais, para a corrente sanguínea, onde são levados para as diferentes partes do corpo para o crescimento e desenvolvimento do animal. -/- -/- 1.2 O BEZERRO ALIMENTADO COM LEITE -/- O Leite ou substituto do leite, quer seja apreendido através de uma teta ou bebido de um balde, é canalizado do esôfago através do sulco esofágico para o abomaso. Este sulco é um pequeno canal na parede do rúmen que é controlado por músculos que permitem que os líquidos sejam diretamente enviados para o abomaso e que não entrem no rúmen. O sulco é ativado em resposta a diferentes estímulos. Funciona bem quando os bezerros amamentam-se através das tetas das mães, mas às vezes não funciona quando bebem de um balde. Essa parece ser uma condição psicológica em resposta aos bezerros separados de suas mães. A maioria dos bezerros podem ser treinados pelo tratador para beber o leite do balde rapidamente e bem, a metodologia empregada é a da persuasão do animal, ao qual o mesmo possa responder positivamente à nova rotina diária e à mãe substituta na forma do criador do bezerro. Quando o leite ou o substituto do leite entra no abomaso, forma um coágulo firme dentro de alguns minutos sob a influência das enzimas renina e pepsina. Este é o mesmo processo envolvido na fabricação de queijo ou junket, usando renina para coagular a proteína do leite. A coagulação do leite retarda a taxa em que flui para fora do abomaso, permitindo assim uma liberação constante de nutrientes alimentares em todo o intestino e, eventualmente, para a corrente sanguínea. Pode levar de 12 a 18 horas para que a coalhada de leite seja totalmente digerida. -/- As enzimas que atuam nas proteínas do leite requerem um ambiente ácido e esse é fornecido pela secreção do ácido clorídrico no abomaso. No entanto, até que a digestão ácida esteja operando de forma eficiente, e isso pode levar até sete dias, a única forma de proteína que pode ser digerida é a caseína. Não há substituto para a caseína no bezerro muito jovem. Os substitutos do leite que contêm outras formas de proteína não podem ser devidamente digeridos até que os bezerros sejam mais velhos. Logo, é necessário muito cuidado para não fornecer substitutos ou sucedâneos que contenham fontes proteicas que não possam ser digeridas pelo estômago do animal, para que não ocasione complicações gastrintestinais. -/- A digestão do leite pode ser melhorada com a inclusão de coalho, que pode ser obtido a partir de fábricas de queijo ou aditivos comerciais de leite de bezerro para a primeira semana ou mais. Esses produtos comerciais podem fornecer ácidos adicionais para reduzir o pH abomasal e incrementar a quantidade de enzimas e bactérias específicas para aumentar a taxa de degradação da coalhada de leite. Tais aditivos são chamados probióticos, na medida em que ajudam nos processos digestivos normais. A pesquisa nem sempre os encontrou para melhorar o desempenho e a saúde dos bezerros, e eles são mais propensos a ser benéficos quando os bezerros estão sofrendo de problemas de saúde. Além disso, a sua eficácia, em termos de custo-benefício é, por vezes, questionada. -/- Qualquer leite de uma alimentação anterior está envolvido neste coágulo recém-formado. As proteínas líquidas de soro de leite e a lactose são rapidamente separadas da coalhada de leite e passam para o abomaso. A gordura do leite contida na coalhada de leite é decomposta por outra enzima, a lipase. Esta é secretado na boca pela saliva e incorporada quando o leite é engolido. A alimentação pelas tetas em vez da alimentação através do balde parece produzir mais saliva e, portanto, mais lipase. A digestão adicional da proteína do leite e da gordura ocorre no duodeno com a ajuda das enzimas produzidas no pâncreas. -/- A lactose, que é rapidamente liberada da coalhada de leite no abomaso, é dividida em glicose e galactose e estas são absorvidas na corrente sanguínea para formar a principal fonte de energia para os bezerros jovens. -/- As gorduras são divididas em ácidos graxos e glicerol para absorção e uso como energia, enquanto as proteínas são divididas em aminoácidos e peptídeos para absorção e uso como fontes de proteína corporal. -/- O amido de cereais, por exemplo, é uma importante fonte de energia em bezerros mais velhos, mas esses animais, nas suas primeiras semanas de vida, não conseguem digerir o amido. -/- O abomaso não é ácido até que o bezerro tenha 1-2 dias de idade e isso apresenta vantagens e desvantagens. A principal vantagem é que as proteínas imunes no colostro não podem ser digeridas nesse compartimento estomacal, por isso são absorvidas na corrente sanguínea na mesma forma quando produzidas pela vaca. Isso garante o seu papel como anticorpos para proteger contra as doenças e infecções. A baixa acidez do conteúdo abomasal no bezerro recém-nascido constitui um risco potencial das bactérias (e provavelmente vírus) tomadas através da boca. Estes não serão mortos pela digestão ácida, sendo assim podem passar para os intestinos, onde podem fazer mal ao bezerro recém-nascido. -/- Todos os bezerros pegam bactérias nos primeiros dias de vida e isso é essencial para o desenvolvimento normal do rúmen (flora microbiana). No entanto, a primeira bactéria a colonizar o intestino também pode causar danos. Desde que o bezerro tenha bebido colostro, os anticorpos maternos podem controlar a propagação dessas bactérias mais nocivas. -/- O bezerro alimentado com leite deve, então, produzir uma digestão ácida no abomaso e uma digestão alcalina no duodeno. Isto é conseguido pela produção de eletrólitos na parede do intestino. -/- Bezerros que sofrem de escoriações devido a distúrbios nutricionais ou infecções bacterianas podem perder grandes quantidades de água e eletrólitos em suas fezes. Estes devem ser reabastecidos como parte do tratamento para as escoriações. -/- O colostro é o primeiro leite produzido por vacas recém-paridas. Além de fornecer nutrientes essenciais para a alimentação animal, fornece anticorpos maternos que permitem a transferência passiva de imunidade contra doenças. As recomendações para a alimentação com colostro serão abordadas brevemente em outro trabalho. -/- -/- 1.3 DESENVOLVIMENTO DO RÚMEN E O PROCESSO DE DESMAME -/- Quando os bezerros são desmamados, o custo da criação diminui acentuadamente. Os custos de alimentação são mais baixos, os insumos de trabalho são reduzidos e a incidência de problemas de saúde é menor. No sentido econômico, faz sentido desmamar os bezerros assim que for razoável. No entanto, o bezerro é forçado a sofrer várias mudanças dramáticas, a saber: -/-  A fonte primária de nutrientes muda de líquido para sólido. -/-  A quantidade de matéria seca que o bezerro recebe é reduzida. -/-  O bezerro deve adaptar-se de um tipo monogástrico a um ruminante de digestão, que inclui a fermentação de alimentos. -/-  Mudanças na habitação e no manejo muitas vezes ocorrem em torno do desmame, o que pode aumentar o estresse. -/- Ao nascer, o rúmen é uma parte pequena e estéril do intestino que, ao desmame deve se tornar o compartimento mais importante dos quatro estômagos. Deve aumentar em tamanho, atividade metabólica interna e fluxo sanguíneo externo. Os cinco requisitos para o desenvolvimento ruminal são: -/-  Estabelecimento de bactérias. -/-  Líquido. -/-  Saída de material (ação muscular). -/-  Capacidade absortiva do tecido. -/-  Substrato para permitir o crescimento bacteriano, tais como minerais reciclados, bem como nutrientes para alimentação. -/- Antes do consumo de alimentos sólidos, as bactérias existentes fermentam o cabelo ingerido, o estrato e o leite que flui do abomaso para o rúmen. A maior parte da água que entra no rúmen provém da água livre (água real não contida no leite ou na solução substituta do leite). O leite contornará o rúmen através do sulco esofágico, enquanto a água livre não. -/- O rúmen se desenvolve a partir de um órgão muito pequeno em bezerros recém-nascidos (1-2 L) para a parte mais importante do intestino (25-30 L) por 3 meses de idade. Ele pode aumentar muito rapidamente durante as primeiras semanas de vida, dado o manejo da alimentação direita. -/- O crescimento do rúmen ocorre apenas sob a influência dos produtos finais da digestão no mesmo, que resultam da fermentação de alimentos sólidos pelos micróbios presentes nesse compartimento. O desenvolvimento ocorre em grande parte através do crescimento das papilas ruminais (figura 5 e 6) na parede ruminal (estruturas semelhantes a folhas na superfície interna), que aumentam a área superficial do rúmen e, portanto, a sua capacidade de absorver estes produtos finais de digestão. Portanto, os concentrados favorecem melhor o desenvolvimento dessas papilas ruminais. Para tanto, é necessário, com um tempo, ir incrementando a dieta sólida gradativamente para que esses animais deixem de consumir o leite das vacas produtoras e possam alimentar-se de ração e pastagens, que é a finalidade da criação de bovinos, ou seja, criar animais com menor custo possível e engordá-los através de ração, mas principalmente de pastagens. -/- A capacidade do rúmen e a ingestão de alimentos sólidos estão intimamente relacionadas. O desenvolvimento do rúmen é muito lento em bezerros alimentados com grandes quantidades de leite. O leite satisfaz seus apetites para que eles não tenham fome suficiente para comer qualquer alimento sólido. Logo, é necessário diminuir paulatinamente o fornecedor do leite para esses animais, favorecendo a ingestão de alimentos sólidos e desenvolvendo o rúmen, estômago que digere as fibras das forragens e que os tona animais peculiares. -/- A ruminação pode ocorrer com cerca de 2 semanas de idade e é uma boa indicação de que o rúmen está se desenvolvendo. Alimentos sólidos, bem como a ruminação, estimulam a produção de saliva e isso fornece nutrientes como ureia e bicarbonato de sódio para produzir os substratos para o crescimento e desenvolvimento da flora bacteriana. -/- No desmame precoce, é importante limitar a quantidade de leite oferecida e a sua disponibilidade durante todo o dia. Também é essencial fornecer alimentos sólidos. Os grosseiros (de baixa ou alta qualidade) devem ser oferecidos em combinação com concentrados de alta qualidade. -/- O criador deve tomar cuidado com o fornecimento de alimentos como a ração farelada, uma vez que essa ração pode entrar pelas vias nasais e ocasionar complicações respiratórias; há alguns relatos de bezerros mortos após a ingestão de ração farelada, na autópsia de um dos casos foi diagnosticada uma morte por esses grãos farelados presentes no pulmão. Portanto, para evitar complicações o ideal é que se forneça uma ração denominada peletizada. -/- Os alimentos grosseiros (volumosos) estimulam o desenvolvimento do rúmen, enquanto os concentrados fornecem nutrientes para a alimentação animal que não são fornecidos pelas quantidades limitadas de leite oferecidas. Sem os concentrados, o crescimento dos bezerros é lento, mas o rúmen ainda se desenvolve, resultando em animais barrigudos. -/- A ureia fornece nitrogênio para os micróbios, enquanto o bicarbonato de sódio atua como um tampão ruminal, ajudando a manter um pH estável no conteúdo do rúmen. Isso é, particularmente, importante quando os bezerros comem grandes quantidades de grãos de cereais na vida adulta, pois os micróbios do rúmen podem produzir muito ácido lático durante a fermentação desse material. -/- Envenenamento por grãos ou acidose ocorre quando os níveis de ácido lático são excessivamente elevados e tornam-se tóxicos para os micróbios do rúmen e, eventualmente, para o animal. Assim como os produtos finais que são absorvidos através da parede do rúmen, a fermentação microbiana produz os gases dióxido de carbono e metano e estes são normalmente exalados. Quando algo impede a fuga destes gases do rúmen, o inchaço pode se manifestar em qualquer fase da vida, diz-se do animal estufado. -/- -/- 1.4 O PAPEL DA FORRAGEM NO PROCESSO DE DESMAME -/- Existem inúmeras controvérsias acerca do papel da forragem no processo de desmame. Pesquisas realizadas na década de 1980 indicaram claramente que a forragem era benéfica, enquanto pesquisas da década de 1990 descobriram que nem sempre era necessário o fornecimento da forragem para que os bezerros fossem desmamados e que não sofresse estresse e nem apresentasse baixa eficiência produtiva e reprodutiva no futuro. Na maioria das pesquisas anteriores, os bezerros eram desmamados com a oferta de concentrados moídos como pellets com ou sem a presença de feno longo ou palha. Porém, a inclusão de forragens na dieta melhorou a ingestão e o desempenho, além de permitir o desmame precoce. -/- Na pesquisa posterior, os bezerros geralmente alimentavam-se de concentrados grosseiramente moídos, além de alguns volumosos, enquanto alguns até incluíam volumosos picados finos na mistura (às vezes chamados de mistura muesli por apresentar o capim e a ração). Nesses estudos, verificou-se que a inclusão de feno ou palha adicional teve pouco efeito no desempenho pré-desmame. -/- Os sistemas de criação de bezerros australianos frequentemente diferem dos demais, especialmente em áreas de parto sazonais. Um número excessivo elevado de bezerros precisam ser criados de uma só vez para lhes fornecer, a todos, currais individuais durante todo o seu período de amamentação. Consequentemente, os bezerros são criados em grupos. Além disso, os ingredientes da maioria dos concentrados para esses animais são finamente moídos. Nessas situações, descobriu-se que a palha limpa é um alimento útil e que deve ser incluso no período pré-desmame. Alguns agricultores preferem feno de boa qualidade, porém estes agricultores geralmente têm bezerros em grupos muito pequenos, muitas vezes um ou dois, por isso possuem maior controle sobre a ingestão de forragem. -/- Figura 7: A alimentação volumosa de bezerros alimentados com leite é uma questão controversa. Imagem cedida pelo IPA -/- É difícil e, portanto, mais caro que os produtores de rações incorporem feno picado nas refeições dos bezerros. Os pellets são muito mais fáceis, pois eles vão fluir para silos. Por fim, os produtores de leite devem incluir o componente volumoso no regime alimentar pré-desmame. A pastagem não é a fonte ideal de forragem volumosa para os bezerros alimentados com leite, uma vez que possui muito pouca fibra e uma baixa densidade de energia alimentar. O seu elevado teor de água limita a sua capacidade de fornecer energia alimentar adequada aos animais em crescimento. Para ingerir a pastagem a capacidade ruminal deveria ser maior, bezerros jovens simplesmente não conseguem comer pasto suficiente, a menos que seja de alta em qualidade. -/- Os bezerros criados com leite e fornecimento gradual de concentrados apresentam uma boa função ruminal às 3 semanas de vida, além de possuírem uma suficiente capacidade ruminal para o desmame entre às 4-6 semanas de idade. No entanto, se a dieta for baseada em leite restrito e pastagem de alta qualidade, a capacidade do rúmen pode não ser suficiente para o desmame até às 8-10 semanas de vida. Mesmo assim, as taxas de crescimento seriam menores em bezerros desmamados com base alimentar somente à pasto, uma vez que a ingestão de energia é insuficiente devido às limitações físicas da capacidade ruminal. -/- Se a qualidade for muito boa e produza apetite, os bezerros preferem volumosos ao invés do concentrado, o que leva a uma ingestão reduzida de nutrientes durante alimentação, tendo como efeito um crescimento mais lento. Quando volumosos e concentrados fornecem apetite no animal, juntamente com o leite limitado, os bezerros podem comer cerca de 10% de palha e 90% de concentrados. Sem o volumoso e a ruminação resultante, o desenvolvimento do rúmen será mais lento devido à falta de saliva e produtos finais da digestão de fibras presentes na parede celular das forragens. -/- -/- REFERÊNCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS -/- -/- BEN ASHER, Aharon. Manual de cría de becerras. Zaragoza: Acribia, 1999. -/- BITTAR, Carla Maris Machado; PORTAL, Rafaela Nunes Sanchez; PEREIRA, Anna Carolina Fett da Cunha. Criação de bezerras leiteiras. Piracicaba: EDUSP, 2018. -/- BLUM, J. W. Nutritional physiology of neonatal calves. Journal of animal physiology and animal nutrition, v. 90, n. 1‐2, p. 1-11, 2006. -/- CAMPOS, OF de. Criação de bezerros até a desmama. Coronel Pacheco: EMBRAPA/CNPGL, 1985. -/- COELHO, S. G. Criação de bezerros. II Simpósio Mineiro de Buiatria, Anais., Belo Horizonte, 2005. -/- DAVIS, Carl L. et al. The development, nutrition, and management of the young calf. Iowa State University Press, 1998. -/- DE OLIVEIRA, Juliana Silva; DE MOURA ZANINE, Anderson; SANTOS, Edson Mauro. Fisiologia, manejo e alimentação de bezerros de corte. Arquivos de Ciências Veterinárias e Zoologia da UNIPAR, v. 10, n. 1, 2007. -/- DRACKLEY, James K. Calf nutrition from birth to breeding. Veterinary Clinics of North America: Food Animal Practice, v. 24, n. 1, p. 55-86, 2008. -/- FERREIRA, Lucas Silveira et al. Desempenho animal e desenvolvimento do rúmen de bezerros leiteiros aleitados com leite integral ou sucedâneo. Boletim de Indústria Animal, v. 65, n. 4, p. 337-345, 2008. -/- GUILLOTEAU, P.; ZABIELSKI, R.; BLUM, J. W. Gastrointestinal tract and digestion in the young ruminant: ontogenesis, adaptations, consequences and manipulations. J Physiol Pharmacol, v. 60, n. Suppl 1, p. 37-46, 2009. -/- HUBER, J. T. Development of the digestive and metabolic apparatus of the calf. Journal of Dairy Science, v. 52, n. 8, p. 1303-1315, 1969. -/- LONGENBACH, J. I.; HEINRICHS, Arlyn Judson. A review of the importance and physiological role of curd formation in the abomasum of young calves. Animal feed science and technology, v. 73, n. 1-2, p. 85-97, 1998. -/- LOPES, Marcos Aurélio; VIEIRA, P. de F. Criação de bezerros leiteiros. Jaboticabal: Funep, 1998. -/- LUCCI, Carlos de Sousa. Bovinos leiteiros jovens: nutrição, manejo, doenças. São Paulo: Nobel, 1989. -/- ROY, James Henry Barstow et al. The calf. Boston: Butterworths., 1980. -/- SAVAGE, E. S.; MCCAY, C. M. The nutrition of calves; A review. Journal of Dairy Science, v. 25, n. 7, p. 595-650, 1942. -/- THIVEND, P.; TOULLEC, R.; GUILLOTEAU, P. Digestive adaptation in the preruminant. In: Digestive physiology and metabolism in ruminants. Springer, Dordrecht, 1980. p. 561-585. (shrink)

Degrees of belief are familiar to all of us. Our confidence in the truth of some propositions is higher than our confidence in the truth of other propositions. We are pretty confident that our computers will boot when we push their power button, but we are much more confident that the sun will rise tomorrow. Degrees of belief formally represent the strength with which we believe the truth of various propositions. The higher an agent’s degree of belief for a particular (...) proposition, the higher her confidence in the truth of that proposition. For instance, Sophia’s degree of belief that it will be sunny in Vienna tomorrow might be .52, whereas her degree of belief that the train will leave on time might be .23. The precise meaning of these statements depends, of course, on the underlying theory of degrees of belief. These theories offer a formal tool to measure degrees of belief, to investigate the relations between various degrees of belief in different propositions, and to normatively evaluate degrees of belief. (shrink)

This paper starts by indicating the analysis of Hempel's conditions of adequacy for any relation of confirmation (Hempel, 1945) as presented in Huber (submitted). There I argue contra Carnap (1962, Section 87) that Hempel felt the need for two concepts of confirmation: one aiming at plausible theories and another aiming at informative theories. However, he also realized that these two concepts are conflicting, and he gave up the concept of confirmation aiming at informative theories. The main part of the (...) paper consists in working out the claim that one can have Hempel's cake and eat it too - in the sense that there is a logic of theory assessment that takes into account both of the two conflicting aspects of plausibility and informativeness. According to the semantics of this logic, a is an acceptable theory for evidence β if and only if a is both sufficiently plausible given β and sufficiently informative about β. This is spelt out in terms of ranking functions (Spohn, 1988) and shown to represent the syntactically specified notion of an assessment relation. The paper then compares these acceptability relations to explanatory and confirmatory consequence relations (Flach, 2000) as well as to nonmonotonic consequence relations (Kraus et al., 1990). It concludes by relating the plausibility-informativeness approach to Carnap's positive relevance account, thereby shedding new light on Carnap's analysis as well as solving another problem of confirmation theory. (shrink)

The paper provides an argument for the thesis that an agent’s degrees of disbelief should obey the ranking calculus. This Consistency Argument is based on the Consistency Theorem. The latter says that an agent’s belief set is and will always be consistent and deductively closed iff her degrees of entrenchment satisfy the ranking axioms and are updated according to the ranktheoretic update rules.

Philosophically, one of the most important questions in the enterprise termed confirmation theory is this: Why should one stick to well confirmed theories rather than to any other theories? This paper discusses the answers to this question one gets from absolute and incremental Bayesian confirmation theory. According to absolute confirmation, one should accept ''absolutely well confirmed'' theories, because absolute confirmation takes one to true theories. An examination of two popular measures of incremental confirmation suggests the view that one should stick (...) to incrementally well confirmed theories, because incremental confirmation takes one to (the most) informative (among all) true theories. However, incremental confirmation does not further this goal in general. I close by presenting a necessary and sufficient condition for revealing the confirmational structure in almost every world when presented separating data. (shrink)

The problem addressed in this paper is “the main epistemic problem concerning science”, viz. “the explication of how we compare and evaluate theories [...] in the light of the available evidence” (van Fraassen, BC, 1983, Theory comparison and relevant Evidence. In J. Earman (Ed.), Testing scientific theories (pp. 27–42). Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press). Sections 1– 3 contain the general plausibility-informativeness theory of theory assessment. In a nutshell, the message is (1) that there are two values a theory should exhibit: (...) truth and informativeness—measured respectively by a truth indicator and a strength indicator; (2) that these two values are conflicting in the sense that the former is a decreasing and the latter an increasing function of the logical strength of the theory to be assessed; and (3) that in assessing a given theory by the available data one should weigh between these two conflicting aspects in such a way that any surplus in informativeness succeeds, if the shortfall in plausibility is small enough. Particular accounts of this general theory arise by inserting particular strength indicators and truth indicators. In Section 4 the theory is spelt out for the Bayesian paradigm of subjective probabilities. It is then compared to incremental Bayesian confirmation theory. Section 4 closes by asking whether it is likely to be lovely. Section 5 discusses a few problems of confirmation theory in the light of the present approach. In particular, it is briefly indicated how the present account gives rise to a new analysis of Hempel’s conditions of adequacy for any relation of confirmation (Hempel, CG, 1945, Studies in the logic of comfirmation. Mind, 54, 1–26, 97–121.), differing from the one Carnap gave in § 87 of his Logical foundations of probability (1962, Chicago: University of Chicago Press). Section 6 adresses the question of justification any theory of theory assessment has to face: why should one stick to theories given high assessment values rather than to any other theories? The answer given by the Bayesian version of the account presented in section 4 is that one should accept theories given high assessment values, because, in the medium run, theory assessment almost surely takes one to the most informative among all true theories when presented separating data. The concluding section 7 continues the comparison between the present account and incremental Bayesian confirmation theory. (shrink)

The thesis of this paper is that we can justify induction deductively relative to one end, and deduction inductively relative to a different end. I will begin by presenting a contemporary variant of Hume ’s argument for the thesis that we cannot justify the principle of induction. Then I will criticize the responses the resulting problem of induction has received by Carnap and Goodman, as well as praise Reichenbach ’s approach. Some of these authors compare induction to deduction. Haack compares (...) deduction to induction, and I will critically discuss her argument for the thesis that we cannot justify the principles of deduction next. In concluding I will defend the thesis that we can justify induction deductively relative to one end, and deduction inductively relative to a different end, and that we can do so in a non-circular way. Along the way I will show how we can understand deductive and inductive logic as normative theories, and I will briefly sketch an argument to the effect that there are only hypothetical, but no categorical imperatives. (shrink)

This paper shows that causation in the sense of Lewis is a special case of causation in the sense of Spohn.

Philosophers typically rely on intuitions when providing a semantics for counterfactual conditionals. However, intuitions regarding counterfactual conditionals are notoriously shaky. The aim of this paper is to provide a principled account of the semantics of counterfactual conditionals. This principled account is provided by what I dub the Royal Rule, a deterministic analogue of the Principal Principle relating chance and credence. The Royal Rule says that an ideal doxastic agent’s initial grade of disbelief in a proposition \(A\) , given that the (...) counterfactual distance in a given context to the closest \(A\) -worlds equals \(n\) , and no further information that is not admissible in this context, should equal \(n\) . Under the two assumptions that the presuppositions of a given context are admissible in this context, and that the theory of deterministic alethic or metaphysical modality is admissible in any context, it follows that the counterfactual distance distribution in a given context has the structure of a ranking function. The basic conditional logic V is shown to be sound and complete with respect to the resulting rank-theoretic semantics of counterfactuals. (shrink)

Ranking functions have been introduced under the name of ordinal conditional functions in Spohn (1988; 1990). They are representations of epistemic states and their dynamics. The most comprehensive and up to date presentation is Spohn (manuscript).

Weisberg introduces a phenomenon he terms perceptual undermining. He argues that it poses a problem for Jeffrey conditionalization, and Bayesian epistemology in general. This is Weisberg’s paradox. Weisberg argues that perceptual undermining also poses a problem for ranking theory and for Dempster-Shafer theory. In this note I argue that perceptual undermining does not pose a problem for any of these theories: for true conditionalizers Weisberg’s paradox is a false alarm.

Belief revision theory studies how an ideal doxastic agent should revise her beliefs when she receives new information. In part I, I have first presented the AGM theory of belief revision. Then I have focused on the problem of iterated belief revisions. In part II, I will first present ranking theory (Spohn 1988). Then I will show how it solves the problem of iterated belief revisions. I will conclude by sketching two areas of future research.

Bayesianism is the position that scientific reasoning is probabilistic and that probabilities are adequately interpreted as an agent's actual subjective degrees of belief, measured by her betting behaviour. Confirmation is one important aspect of scientific reasoning. The thesis of this paper is the following: if scientific reasoning is at all probabilistic, the subjective interpretation has to be given up in order to get right confirmation—and thus scientific reasoning in general. The Bayesian approach to scientific reasoning Bayesian confirmation theory The example (...) The less reliable the source of information, the higher the degree of Bayesian confirmation Measure sensitivity A more general version of the problem of old evidence Conditioning on the entailment relation The counterfactual strategy Generalizing the counterfactual strategy The desired result, and a necessary and sufficient condition for it Actual degrees of belief The common knock-down feature, or ‘anything goes’ The problem of prior probabilities. (shrink)

Recent accounts of actual causation are stated in terms of extended causal models. These extended causal models contain two elements representing two seemingly distinct modalities. The first element are structural equations which represent the or mechanisms of the model, just as ordinary causal models do. The second element are ranking functions which represent normality or typicality. The aim of this paper is to show that these two modalities can be unified. I do so by formulating two constraints under which extended (...) causal models with their two modalities can be subsumed under so called which contain just one modality. These two constraints will be formally precise versions of Lewissystem of weights or priorities” governing overall similarity between possible worlds. (shrink)

Traditionally, the investigation of truth has been anchored in a priori reasoning. Cognitive science deviates from this tradition by adding empirical data on how people understand and use concepts. Building on psychophysics and machine learning methods, we introduce conceptual scaling, an approach to map people's understanding of abstract concepts. This approach, allows computing participant-specific conceptual maps from obtained ordinal comparison data, thereby quantifying perceived similarities among abstract concepts. Using this approach, we investigated individual's alignment with philosophical theories on truth and (...) the predictive capacity of conceptual maps. The obtained results indicated that, while people's understanding of truth is multifaceted and encapsulates notions of coherence and authenticity, alignment is best for the correspondence theory of truth. Furthermore, conceptual maps allowed predicting individual outcomes with an accuracy of roughly 70%. This research demonstrates that conceptual scaling offers accurate descriptions of individual's understanding of abstract concepts, behavioral predictions, and quantification of alignment with theoretical perspectives. (shrink)

Belief revision theory studies how an ideal doxastic agent should revise her beliefs when she receives new information. In part I I will first present the AGM theory of belief revision (Alchourrón & Gärdenfors & Makinson 1985). Then I will focus on the problem of iterated belief revisions.

Searle proposes an argument in order to prove the existence of universals and thereby solve the problem of universals: From every meaningful general term P(x) follows a tautology Vx[P(x) v -P(x)], which entails the existence of the corresponding universal P. To be convincing, this argument for existence must be valid, it must presume true premises and it must be free of any informal fallacy. First, the validity of the argument for existence in its non-modal interpretation will be proven with the (...) help of the formal deductive system F. Secondly, it will be shown that a self-contradictory tautology concept is employed, which renders the premises meaningless. Consequently, the inconsistency will be emended through redefinition and the argument's ensuing correctness will be demonstrated. Finally, it will be shown that the argument for existence presupposes the existence of universals in its premise and hence begs the question. (shrink)

The paper presents a new analysis of Hempel’s conditions of adequacy, differing from the one in Carnap. Hempel, so it is argued, felt the need for two concepts of confirmation: one aiming at true theories, and another aiming at informative theories. However, so the analysis continues, he also realized that these two concepts were conflicting, and so he gave up the concept of confirmation aiming at informative theories. It is then shown that one can have the cake and eat it: (...) There is a logic of confirmation that accounts for both of these two conflicting aspects. (shrink)

Logic is the study of the quality of arguments. An argument consists of a set of premises and a conclusion. The quality of an argument depends on at least two factors: the truth of the premises, and the strength with which the premises confirm the conclusion. The truth of the premises is a contingent factor that depends on the state of the world. The strength with which the premises confirm the conclusion is supposed to be independent of the state of (...) the world. Logic is only concerned with this second, logical factor of the quality of arguments. (shrink)

This paper presents a new analysis of C.G. Hempel’s conditions of adequacy for any relation of confirmation [Hempel C. G. (1945). Aspects of scientific explanation and other essays in the philosophy of science. New York: The Free Press, pp. 3–51.], differing from the one Carnap gave in §87 of his [1962. Logical foundations of probability (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.]. Hempel, it is argued, felt the need for two concepts of confirmation: one aiming at true hypotheses and another (...) aiming at informative hypotheses. However, he also realized that these two concepts are conflicting, and he gave up the concept of confirmation aiming at informative hypotheses. I then show that one can have Hempel’s cake and eat it too. There is a logic that takes into account both of these two conflicting aspects. According to this logic, a sentence H is an acceptable hypothesis for evidence E if and only if H is both sufficiently plausible given E and sufficiently informative about E. Finally, the logic sheds new light on Carnap’s analysis. (shrink)

The question I am addressing in this paper is the following: how is it possible to empirically test, or confirm, counterfactuals? After motivating this question in Section 1, I will look at two approaches to counterfactuals, and at how counterfactuals can be empirically tested, or confirmed, if at all, on these accounts in Section 2. I will then digress into the philosophy of probability in Section 3. The reason for this digression is that I want to use the way observable (...) absolute and relative frequencies, two empirical notions, are used to empirically test, or confirm, hypotheses about objective chances, a metaphysical notion, as a role-model. Specifically, I want to use this probabilistic account of the testing of chance hypotheses as a role-model for the account of the testing of counterfactuals, another metaphysical notion, that I will present in Sections 4 to 8. I will conclude by comparing my proposal to one non-probabilistic and one probabilistic alternative in Section 9. (shrink)

Soda taxes are controversial. While proponents point to their potential health benefits and the public projects that could be funded with their revenue, critics argue that they are paternalistic and regressive. In this paper, we explore the prospects for designing a just soda tax, one that appropriately balances the often-competing ethical considerations of promoting social welfare, respecting people’s autonomy, and ensuring distributive fairness. We argue that policymakers have several paths forward for designing a just soda tax, but that the considerations (...) relevant to ethical policy design are more complicated than is sometimes acknowledged. (shrink)

We argue that a semantics for counterfactual conditionals in terms of comparative overall similarity faces a formal limitation due to Arrow’s impossibility theorem from social choice theory. According to Lewis’s account, the truth-conditions for counterfactual conditionals are given in terms of the comparative overall similarity between possible worlds, which is in turn determined by various aspects of similarity between possible worlds. We argue that a function from aspects of similarity to overall similarity should satisfy certain plausible constraints while Arrow’s impossibility (...) theorem rules out that such a function satisfies all the constraints simultaneously. We argue that a way out of this impasse is to represent aspectual similarity in terms of ranking functions instead of representing it in a purely ordinal fashion. Further, we argue against the claim that the determination of overall similarity by aspects of similarity faces a difficulty in addition to the Arrovian limitation, namely the incommensurability of different aspects of similarity. The phenomena that have been cited as evidence for such incommensurability are best explained by ordinary vagueness. (shrink)

The problem adressed in this paper is “the main epistemic problem concerning science”, viz. “the explication of how we compare and evaluate theories [...] in the light of the available evidence” (van Fraassen 1983, 27).

Any theory of confirmation must answer the following question: what is the purpose of its conception of confirmation for scientific inquiry? In this article, we argue that no Bayesian conception of confirmation can be used for its primary intended purpose, which we take to be making a claim about how worthy of belief various hypotheses are. Then we consider a different use to which Bayesian confirmation might be put, namely, determining the epistemic value of experimental outcomes, and thus to decide (...) which experiments to carry out. Interestingly, Bayesian confirmation theorists rule out that confirmation be used for this purpose. We conclude that Bayesian confirmation is a means with no end. 1 Introduction2 Bayesian Confirmation Theory3 Bayesian Confirmation and Belief4 Confirmation and the Value of Experiments5 Conclusion. (shrink)

Crupi et al. propose a generalization of Bayesian confirmation theory that they claim to adequately deal with confirmation by uncertain evidence. Consider a series of points of time t0, . . . , ti, . . . , tn such that the agent’s subjective probability for an atomic proposition E changes from Pr0 at t0 to . . . to Pri at ti to . . . to Prn at tn. It is understood that the agent’s subjective probabilities change for (...) E and no logically stronger proposition, and that the agent updates her subjective probabilities by Jeffrey conditionalization. For this specific scenario the authors propose to take the difference between Pr0 and Pri as the degree to which E confirms H for the agent at time ti , C0,i. This proposal is claimed to be adequate, because. (shrink)

This paper discusses an almost sixty year old problem in the philosophy of science -- that of a logic of confirmation. We present a new analysis of Carl G. Hempel's conditions of adequacy (Hempel 1945), differing from the one Carnap gave in §87 of his Logical Foundations of Probability (1962). Hempel, it is argued, felt the need for two concepts of confirmation: one aiming at true theories and another aiming at informative theories. However, he also realized that these two concepts (...) are conflicting, and he gave up the concept of confirmation aiming at informative theories. We then show that one can have Hempel's cake and eat it, too: There is a (rank-theoretic and genuinely nonmonotonic) logic of confirmation -- or rather, theory assessment -- that takes into account both of these two conflicting aspects. According to this logic, a statement H is an acceptable theory for the data E if and only if H is both sufficiently plausible given E and sufficiently informative about E. Finally, the logic sheds new light on Carnap's analysis (and solves another problem of confirmation theory). (shrink)

This is a pdf of a Mathematica calculation that supplements the paper "Presentist Fragmentalism and Quantum Mechanics" forthcoming in Foundations of Physics. In that paper the Born rule (or at least a progenitor) is derived from experimental conditions on the mutual observations of two fragments. In this pdf the experimental conditions are applied to Hilbert space dimensions 3, 4, and 5. It turns out each of these have a 1-dimensional solution space which, it is hoped, can be interpretated as the (...) phase. (shrink)

This paper summarizes (in German) recent tendencies in the philosophy of the life sciences.

There are many psychic mechanisms by which people engage with their selves. We argue that an important yet hitherto neglected one is self-appraisal via meta-emotions. We discuss the intentional structure of meta-emotions and explore the phenomenology of a variety of examples. We then present a pilot study providing preliminary evidence that some facial displays may indicate the presence of meta-emotions. We conclude by arguing that meta-emotions have an important role to play in higher-order theories of psychic harmony.

Humans interact with animals in numerous ways and on numerous levels. We are indeed living in an “animal”s world,’ in the sense that our lives are very much intertwined with the lives of animals. This also means that animals, like those dogs we commonly refer to as our pets, are living in a “human’s world” in the sense that it is us, not them, who, to a large degree, define and manage the interactions we have with them. In this sense, (...) the human-animal relationship is nothing we should romanticize: it comes with clear power relations and thus with a set of responsibilities on the side of those who exercise this power. This holds, despite the fact that we like to think about our dogs as human’s best friend. Dogs have been part of human societies for longer than any other domestic species. Like no other species they exemplify the role of companion animals. Relationships with pet dogs are both very widespread and very intense, often leading to strong attachments between owners or caregivers and animals and to a treatment of these dogs as family members or even children. But how does this relationship look from the dogs’ perspective? How do they perceive the humans they engage with? What responsibilities and duties arise from the kind of mutual understanding, attachment, and the supposedly “special” bonds we form with them? Are there ethical implications, maybe even ethical implications beyond animal welfare? The past decades have seen an upsurge of research from comparative cognition on pet dogs’ cognitive and social skills, especially in comparison with and reference to humans. We will therefore set our discussion about the nature and ethical dimensions of the human–dog relationship against the background of the current empirical knowledge on dog (social) cognition. This allows us to analyze the human–dog relationship by applying an interdisciplinary approach that starts from the perspective of the dog to ultimately inform the perspective of humans. It is our aim to thereby identify ethical dimensions of the human–dog relationship that have been overlooked so far. (shrink)

Le but de ce texte est de mettre en évidence les équi­valences entre la façon dont le concept de conatus résout, dans l'Éthique, le problème de l'unité modale complexe. en rendant consis­tant le concept de chose singulière en tant que celle-ci doit être consi­dérée comme un légitime sujet d'attribution d'états, et la façon dont ce même concept dessine le rapport cognitif de l'esprit avec lui-même, rapport par lequel l'esprit se saisit comme sujet de ses états et qui ca­ractérise la notion (...) moderne de subjectivité. Ainsi, en éclairant cet as­pect du concept spinoziste de chose singulière. on comprendra aussi, de façon indirecte, l'une des conditions par lesquelles les choses peuvent, dans la doctrine spinoziste, devenir des objets ou des signes pour la connaissance humaine. (shrink)

Je cherche à explorer comment l'expérience de la temporalité est multiforme et fortement perturbée à l'époque de la pandémie Covid-19 et des politiques de confinement, générant une expérience d'hétérochronie, qui remet en question notre rapport à la vie.

Philosophers of experiment have acknowledged that experiments are often more than mere hypothesis-tests, once thought to be an experiment's exclusive calling. Drawing on examples from contemporary biology, I make an additional amendment to our understanding of experiment by examining the way that `wide' instrumentation can, for reasons of efficiency, lead scientists away from traditional hypothesis-directed methods of experimentation and towards exploratory methods.

It seems natural to choose whether to have a child by reflecting on what it would be like to actually have a child. I argue that this natural approach fails. If you choose to become a parent, and your choice is based on projections about what you think it would be like for you to have a child, your choice is not rational. If you choose to remain childless, and your choice is based upon projections about what you think it (...) would be like for you to have a child, your choice is not rational. This suggests we should reject our ordinary conception of how to make this life-changing decision, and raises general questions about how to rationally approach important life choices. (shrink)

The question I want to explore is whether experience supports an antireductionist ontology of time, that is, whether we should take it to support an ontology that includes a primitive, monadic property of nowness responsible for the special feel of events in the present, and a relation of passage that events instantiate in virtue of literally passing from the future, to the present, and then into the past.

The genetic modification of pigs as a source of transplantable organs is one of several possible solutions to the chronic organ shortage. This paper describes existing ethical tensions in xenotransplantation (XTx) that argue against pursuing it. Recommendations for lifelong infectious disease surveillance and notification of close contacts of recipients are in tension with the rights of human research subjects. Parental/guardian consent for pediatric xenograft recipients is in tension with a child’s right to an open future. Individual consent to transplant is (...) in tension with public health threats that include zoonotic diseases. XTx amplifies concerns about justice in organ transplantation and could exacerbate existing inequities. The prevention of infectious disease in source animals is in tension with the best practices of animal care and animal welfare, requiring isolation, ethologically inappropriate housing, and invasive reproductive procedures that would severely impact the well-being of intelligent social creatures like pigs. (shrink)

The tripartite account of propositional, fallibilist knowledge that p as justified true belief can become adequate only if it can solve the Gettier Problem. However, the latter can be solved only if the problem of a successful coordination of the resources (at least truth and justification) necessary and sufficient to deliver propositional, fallibilist knowledge that p can be solved. In this paper, the coordination problem is proved to be insolvable by showing that it is equivalent to the ''''coordinated attack'''' problem, (...) which is demonstrably insolvable in epistemic logic. It follows that the tripartite account is not merely inadequate as it stands, as proved by Gettier-type counterexamples, but demonstrably irreparable in principle, so that efforts to improve it can never succeed. (shrink)

Philosophical discussions of species have focused on multicellular, sexual animals and have often neglected to consider unicellular organisms like bacteria. This article begins to fill this gap by considering what species concepts, if any, apply neatly to the bacterial world. First, I argue that the biological species concept cannot be applied to bacteria because of the variable rates of genetic transfer between populations, depending in part on which gene type is prioritized. Second, I present a critique of phylogenetic bacterial species, (...) arguing that phylogenetic bacterial classification requires a questionable metaphysical commitment to the existence of essential genes. I conclude by considering how microbiologists have dealt with these biological complexities by using more pragmatic and not exclusively evolutionary accounts of species. I argue that this pragmatism is not borne of laziness but rather of the substantial conceptual problems in classifying bacteria based on any evolutionary standard. (shrink)

Expressivists about normative thought and discourse traditionally deny that there are nondeflationary normative propositions. However, it has recently been suggested that expressivists might avoid a number of problems by providing a theory of normative propositions compatible with expressivism. This paper explores the prospects for developing an expressivist theory of propositions within the framework of cognitive act theories of propositions. First, I argue that the only extant expressivist theory of cognitive propositions—Michael Ridge's ‘ecumenical expressivist’ theory—fails to explain identity conditions for normative (...) propositions. Second, I argue that this failure motivates a general constraint—the ‘unity requirement’—that any expressivist theory of propositions must provide a unified nonrepresentational explanation of that in virtue of which propositional attitudes have the content that they have. Third, I argue that conceptual role accounts of content provide a promising framework in which to develop an expressivist theory of cognitive propositions. (shrink)